What chance have Forest got of being relegated?

Pictured: Waltham Forest celebrate after avoiding the drop at Enfield Town in 2008

Waltham Forest only have six games left to save themselves from a possible relegation at the end of the 2015-16 season.

Forest take on Eton Manor this evening (Wednesday), but then are left with five challenging matches.

They could have a huge part to play in the title race as Basildon and Bowers & Pitsea visit Wadham Lodge, while Forest travel to FC Romania on the final day of the season. Sandwiched in between those games are home matches against Hullbridge Sports and Clapton.

Bottom side Newham are six points behind Forest, with only four games to play. They play Barking on Saturday, but then face Eton Manor twice and Southend Manor on the final day of the season.

However, Newham lost 7-1 to Ilford last night, and have a considerably worse goal difference than Forest.

As with the end of every non-league season, the fate of teams in the relegation positions may not be in their hands.

At the start of the season, Forest were informed that it was likely that one team would be relegated from the Essex Senior League, but this was not a certainty.

So here’s how things stand so far

Relegation from Step 3 and 4

Farnborough‘s financial peculiarities means they will be relegated by a division at the end of the season, no matter what. Should they finish in a relegation place in the Isthmian Premier – they’re currently four points from safety with four games to play – they will be relegated to Step 5. This will open up a reprieve for Heybridge Swifts, currently the best placed Isthmian League side on points per game (PPG).

The bottom of the Isthmian 1 North doesn’t read well for Essex football – seven of the bottom eight clubs fall into Senior League territory. But realistically, Great Wakering and Romford, 17th and 18th respectively are clear from danger.

League table at 6/4/16

		P	GD	Pts
19	Witham Town	42	-32	39
20	Wroxham	43	-32	39
21	Waltham Abbey	43	-24	38
22	Heybridge Swifts	42	-28	38
23	Barkingside	42	-47	28
R	Redbridge	42	-93	24

Redbridge have already finished in a relegation place in the Isthmian 1 North. They’re four points behind second-bottom Barkingside. Whoever finishes bottom of these two clubs will not be offered any possible reprieve.

It is therefore most likely that two of these three bottom clubs from R1N will be relegated to the ESL.

Promotion from Step 6/7

The Essex Olympian League did not receive any applicants for promotion this season. Although the Premier Division is Step 7, clubs like Wadham Lodge have made a double jump in the past.

West Essex, who groundshare with Barking, applied from the Step 7 Middlesex County League. They’re currently third in their league, but have 8 games in hand on the leaders. They are expected to make the jump two divisions, just as Wadham Lodge did.

As the ESL ran a team short this season, it seems that we will lose two teams – one via promotion and the bottom team via relegation, and gain three – two relegated from Step 4, and one promoted from Step 7.

To summarise

From the ESL	To the ESL
FC Romania or Bowers & Pistea (Promoted) Newham (Relgated)	Redbridge (Relegated) 2nd bottom in R1N (Relegated) West Essex (Promoted)

Please note, all of the above is the editors interpretation of news and rumours. All or none of this may take place.